Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Super Bowl Preview

In what will be one of the highest rated Super Bowls of all-time, the unbeaten Pats will try to finish off their undefeated season against the resurgent Giants. This game has endless story lines: Manning's breakout months, a 4th title in 7 years for New England, Brady's ankle, 19-0, New York vs Boston, the list goes on and on. The game itself is likely to be anti-climactic after all the hype, so don't get your hopes up. A few disclaimers before my analysis begins:

1) For those of you who don't know, I absolutely, positively despise the New England Patriots. Additionally, I have fully jumped on the Giants bandwagon. That being said, this becomes the Super Bowl I have the most rooting interest in my 21 year life, so please excuse any bias.

2) Plaxico Burress needs to shut his mouth, but I don't buy into the fact that his comments are going to 'pump up the Pats'. If you need comments from a WR to get you psyched for the Super Bowl, you don't deserve to be playing. All players should be motivated to play with the highest intensity, and to the fullest extent of their ability, it's the Super Bowl. Give me a break.

3) Tom Brady's ankle is completely fine. Kudos to ESPN for filling up hours of dead air with a non-story.

Super Bowl XLVII

The Giants actually come into the game with more momentum, which is tough to do against a team who has won 18 straight. The G-Men come in riding the 'no one respects us' wave, which is always dangerous. Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to live up to their expectations and blow out opponents. So despite playoff victories by 11 and 9 point margins, the Pats have been 'disappointing'. However, the momentum stops the second the ball is kicked off, and the Pats are the more talented, and more experienced team.

When the Patriots have the ball:

The Giants do possess the one thing that can slow the Pats offense, a consistent pass rush. Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are among the best DE tandems in the game, and must get to Brady early and often to stay in the game. The problem on defense is the mismatch of the Giants secondary vs the Pats receivers. Big Blue's defensive backs are suspect, which is bad enough without having to face the likes of Moss, Stallworth and Welker. Madison, Ross and Webster have all battled injuries, and R.W. McQuarters appears to have been infected with fumblitis. I think the Giants will get pressure on Brady, and knock him down a few times, frustrating him a bit early on. However, I think in the end the mismatch down the field is too great, and I expect several plays of 20+ yards. A major key for the Giants is limiting big plays, and I think this will be a tremendous challenge. Additionally, what we've seen over the past few weeks is that even if you manage to slow Brady and the passing offense, Maroney is perfectly capable of carrying the load to the tune of 150 yards. The Pats big boys have been dominating the line of scrimmage, and the Pats always find a way to score. The G-Men will frustrate the Pats offense, but despite Plax's prediction, they'll drop more than 17 points.

When the Giants have the ball:

On the other side of the ball, I fully expect the Giants to move the football. His big mouth aside, Burress played a tremendous game last week, and will be a big factor in the ball game. Eli has thrown the ball extremely well the past 4 weeks, and has spread the ball around successfully. Most importantly, he has been smart with the football, making efficient throws and avoiding turnover. Manning has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs, and continuing this trend is a must. Amani Toomer is the go-to-guy in big spots, and TE Kevin Boss has filled in quite nicely for the injured Jeremy Shockey. Brandon Jacobs is among the toughest runners in the league, and will provide the Giants with the ground attack they need to open up the passing game. The key for the Giants is to take advantage of red zone opportunities. The past two weeks, Jacksonville and San Diego have moved the ball well, but couldn't convert opportunities into 6 points. I expect the Giants to have little trouble piling up the yardage, but the less we see of Lawrence Tynes, the better. Plus, we know the Giants will get at least 30-45 yards on Rodney Harrison penalties, probably on hits administered to #17.

Prediction:
I truly believe this will be an exciting, competitive game. Contrary to popular belief, Giants are a talented, well-coached, fundamentally sound football team, not simply a hot one. If they can limit the big plays on offense, protect the football, and convert opportunities into touchdowns, the Giants have a real shot. Unfortunately, that's just too many 'ifs' against a team as good and as experienced as this Pats team.

New England 31, New York Giants 24

No comments: