Wednesday, January 30, 2008

The Super Bowl Preview

In what will be one of the highest rated Super Bowls of all-time, the unbeaten Pats will try to finish off their undefeated season against the resurgent Giants. This game has endless story lines: Manning's breakout months, a 4th title in 7 years for New England, Brady's ankle, 19-0, New York vs Boston, the list goes on and on. The game itself is likely to be anti-climactic after all the hype, so don't get your hopes up. A few disclaimers before my analysis begins:

1) For those of you who don't know, I absolutely, positively despise the New England Patriots. Additionally, I have fully jumped on the Giants bandwagon. That being said, this becomes the Super Bowl I have the most rooting interest in my 21 year life, so please excuse any bias.

2) Plaxico Burress needs to shut his mouth, but I don't buy into the fact that his comments are going to 'pump up the Pats'. If you need comments from a WR to get you psyched for the Super Bowl, you don't deserve to be playing. All players should be motivated to play with the highest intensity, and to the fullest extent of their ability, it's the Super Bowl. Give me a break.

3) Tom Brady's ankle is completely fine. Kudos to ESPN for filling up hours of dead air with a non-story.

Super Bowl XLVII

The Giants actually come into the game with more momentum, which is tough to do against a team who has won 18 straight. The G-Men come in riding the 'no one respects us' wave, which is always dangerous. Meanwhile, the Pats have failed to live up to their expectations and blow out opponents. So despite playoff victories by 11 and 9 point margins, the Pats have been 'disappointing'. However, the momentum stops the second the ball is kicked off, and the Pats are the more talented, and more experienced team.

When the Patriots have the ball:

The Giants do possess the one thing that can slow the Pats offense, a consistent pass rush. Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora are among the best DE tandems in the game, and must get to Brady early and often to stay in the game. The problem on defense is the mismatch of the Giants secondary vs the Pats receivers. Big Blue's defensive backs are suspect, which is bad enough without having to face the likes of Moss, Stallworth and Welker. Madison, Ross and Webster have all battled injuries, and R.W. McQuarters appears to have been infected with fumblitis. I think the Giants will get pressure on Brady, and knock him down a few times, frustrating him a bit early on. However, I think in the end the mismatch down the field is too great, and I expect several plays of 20+ yards. A major key for the Giants is limiting big plays, and I think this will be a tremendous challenge. Additionally, what we've seen over the past few weeks is that even if you manage to slow Brady and the passing offense, Maroney is perfectly capable of carrying the load to the tune of 150 yards. The Pats big boys have been dominating the line of scrimmage, and the Pats always find a way to score. The G-Men will frustrate the Pats offense, but despite Plax's prediction, they'll drop more than 17 points.

When the Giants have the ball:

On the other side of the ball, I fully expect the Giants to move the football. His big mouth aside, Burress played a tremendous game last week, and will be a big factor in the ball game. Eli has thrown the ball extremely well the past 4 weeks, and has spread the ball around successfully. Most importantly, he has been smart with the football, making efficient throws and avoiding turnover. Manning has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs, and continuing this trend is a must. Amani Toomer is the go-to-guy in big spots, and TE Kevin Boss has filled in quite nicely for the injured Jeremy Shockey. Brandon Jacobs is among the toughest runners in the league, and will provide the Giants with the ground attack they need to open up the passing game. The key for the Giants is to take advantage of red zone opportunities. The past two weeks, Jacksonville and San Diego have moved the ball well, but couldn't convert opportunities into 6 points. I expect the Giants to have little trouble piling up the yardage, but the less we see of Lawrence Tynes, the better. Plus, we know the Giants will get at least 30-45 yards on Rodney Harrison penalties, probably on hits administered to #17.

Prediction:
I truly believe this will be an exciting, competitive game. Contrary to popular belief, Giants are a talented, well-coached, fundamentally sound football team, not simply a hot one. If they can limit the big plays on offense, protect the football, and convert opportunities into touchdowns, the Giants have a real shot. Unfortunately, that's just too many 'ifs' against a team as good and as experienced as this Pats team.

New England 31, New York Giants 24

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

(Inserts Santana Exclamation Here)

The Mets have acquired LHP Johan Santana from the Twins in exchange for four prospects.

It's over. I can't believe it. No Fernando Martinez. No Mike Pelfrey. No Jose Reyes. And to think, all it took was last night's blogpost to give the Twins the kick in the ass they needed. This is a great day to be a Mets fan, and later today, when I have finished celebrating, more reaction will follow.

Monday, January 28, 2008

As the Rumor Mill Turns..

Erik Bedard

There are officially 17 days until pitchers and catchers report, and the rumors are beginning to catch fire once again. All signs point to an imminent deal between the Orioles and Mariners, sending stud pitcher Erik Bedard to Seattle in exchange for OF Adam Jones, RP George Sherrill and two top Seattle prospects.

The deal would give the Mariners 2 potentially dominant starting pitchers in Felix Hernandez and Bedard, to compliment lights-out closer J.J. Putz. The M's offense is strong behind Japanese stars Ichiro and Kenji Johjima and vets Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson, but with Jones heading to Baltimore and Jose Guillen signing with Kansas City, the outfield has taken a big hit this season. Still, a lineup featuring something like Ichiro-Vidro-Ibanez-Beltre-Sexson-Johjima, with Jeremy Reed, Jose Lopez and Willie Bloomquist at the bottom of the order is still a strong top to bottom lineup. The Mariners play a big role in the AL West race, as they showed significant potential after their 2007 run.

On the flip side, this trade sets the Orioles further and further back in returning to respectability. With young players maturing in Tampa, the Orioles may need to make themselves comfortable in the AL East basement. A perennial power in the '90s, Peter Angelos has run this team straight into the ground, and as the Yankees and Red Sox continue to get stronger, the Orioles may not see the players for many years.


Johan Santana

This has to be one of the most talked about, debated, blogged, and written about trade in MLB history. Articles seem to surface on this story daily, incredible since there hasn't been any real news here since the winter meetings. The latest 'story' has the Mets as the new front-runner. According to multiple 'sources' , the Yankees have taken Phil Hughes off the table, and the BoSox have done the same with Jon Lester. Suddenly, a package of all the Mets top prospects is much more attractive to the Twins. The deal rumored to be on the table is 18 year old pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, SP Phil Humber, SP Kevin Mulvey and OF Carlos Gomez. The sticking point is reportedly 18-year old phenom OF Fernando Martinez, who the Mets are currently refusing to add.

I find it so hard to comment on this, because no one really knows what's really happening. Some seem to think the Twins are just keeping the Mets in it to keep the Yankees interested, and in turn, the Red Sox. It appears now that the Twins would pull the trigger on a Phil Hughes trade without insisting on the addition of Ian Kennedy. The price has dropped for Santana since December (or so it appears), but apparently not low enough to accept a package of prospects from the Mets. As a Met fan, I say throw the lot of young talent at Minnesota, because a pitcher like this comes along once a decade. It is near impossible to acquire an ace of Santana's statute in this day and age, and the Mets have the money to sign him long-term, and no player who has yet to make a major league contribution should hold up this deal.

If a deal is to happen, it will likely happen in the next week or so, as the team will want to prepare for spring training. I'm on the edge of my seat, I just don't know how much more I can read.

The Rest of Baseball

Incredibly, this entire off-season centered around three players, none of which were free agents. Danny Haren, Bedard and Santana have been the story, and only Haren was actually moved. Despite some big names still on the free-agent market (Livan Hernandez, Kenny Lofton, Bartolo Colon, some guy named Bonds), no one seems to care. This has been of the most boring off seasons in recent memory, as the trend is toward locking up young players for many years, even if it means buying out some arbitration years. Any winter where the biggest signing for a team from New York is Matt Wise, well....it's a good thing the Giants are in the Super Bowl. Go Big Blue!

Super Bowl Preview will debut on Wednesday

Monday, January 21, 2008

Against the Spread

Just for the record, here are my picks against the spread this playoff season, all spreads are from the Thursday Star Ledger, as per my football pool rules:

Wild-Card Round:

Seattle (-3) over Washington
Jacksonville (+2) over Pittsburgh
NY Giants (+3) over Tampa Bay
San Diego (-8) over Tennessee

Divisional Round:

Green Bay (-8) over Seattle
Jacksonville (+13.5) over New England
Indianapolis (-8.5) over San Diego
NY Giants (+7.5) over Dallas

Championship Round:

San Diego (+14) over New England
NY Giants (+7) over Green Bay

For those keeping score, that's 9-1. Don't be Skrrrrrrrred.

Three Cheers for the Red, White and Blue

Well, it's not surprising that the red, white and blue team from Foxboro, Massachusetts has made it all the way to the Super Bowl. Despite 3, count 'em, 3, interceptions from Tom Brady, the Chargers fell short, falling to the Patriots 21-12. Despite the three picks, and three trips inside the Patriots 10-yard line (3 FGs), the Chargers could not capitalize on an off-day from the Pats-O. If any there were a day for this team to be beaten, it was on this day. Tom Brady played as poorly as you'll ever see, as perhaps the frigid temperatures got to him. However, despite the poor play by the MVP, the Chargers hobbled offense could not take advantage. Philip Rivers turned in a gutsy performance on a bum knee, but could not get the ball into the end zone. The Bolts outplayed the undefeated Pats for 3 quarters, but because they could not push the ball across the goal line, still trailed 14-12. An early 4th quarter TD allowed the Pats running game to take over, while Laurence Maroney solidified his status as an elite-back with a big-time performance down the stretch. The Pats did not turn in an 'A' effort, but it was good enough to advance to the more important A, Arizona.

The other red, white and blue team from straight down I-95 served as a bit more of a surprise. To all those who said 'No way is Eli winning 3 straight road games'. To all those who said "No way can the Giants win in Lambeau'. To all those who said it couldn't be done, I present to you the 2007-08 NFC Champion New York Football Giants. In one of the most entertaining and exciting championship games in recent history, Big Blue shocked the Pack in Green Bay, with a 23-20 overtime win. And it all starts and ends with Eli, who threw of over 250 yards, and for the 3rd straight time this playoff season, did not turn the football over. The G-Men came out and outplayed the Packers from the get go, jumping out to an early 6-0 lead before a 90-yd TD pass to Donald Driver. The Giants went into the locker room down 10-6 at the half, but a strong drive in on the opening series in the second half gave the Giants the lead, capped by a Brandon Jacobs TD run. The two teams traded 7s to make the score 20-17 Giants before the game got interesting. With the Packers driving, R.W. McQuarters, one of the heroes of last weeks upset in Dallas, picked off Brett Favre deep in Green Bay territory, only to fumble the ball right
back to the Pack. Mason Crosby tied the game with a 37-yard field goal, setting the stage for a classic ending. The Giants took the ensuing kickoff down the field, giving Lawrence Tynes a chance to give the Giants a lead with 7 minutes to play. Tynes pushed the kick left, giving the Packers life. After both teams were stopped, the Giants were set to get the ball back with 2:30 to play. After returning the ball inside the Packers 40, R.W. McQuarters coughed the ball up yet again, but instead of falling on the ball, the Packers attempt to pick it up, and the ball winds up in Domenik Hixon's hand as the Giants retain possession at midfield. Following 2 big catches by Steve Smith and tough runs by Ahmad Bradshaw (including a 48 yard touchdown which was called back), Lawrence Tynes was set up with a chance for redemption, a 36 yard game winning FG attempt. However, once again Tynes booted the kick left, badly, sending this instant classic to overtime. After winning the coin toss, Favre made things happen quickly, throwing the ball right into the hands of the Giants' Corey Webster on 2nd down. The Giants did nothing with the field position, and coach Tom Coughlin decided to leave it up to his shaky kicked for a 47-yard attempt ( keeping in mind no one in the history of the NFL has every made a 40+ yard FG in Lambeau Field during the playoffs). Sure enough, Tyned drilled this FG, sending the Giants to the big show and half of New York into a frenzy.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Enough already

I honestly can't take it anymore. This steroid scandal has been made infinitely worse than it had to be. Major League Baseball has turned a performance-enhancing drug scandal, which has arisen in nearly all sports, and cranked out the Mitchell Report, books authored by intellectuals such as Jose Canseco, and multiple hearings before Congress. We get it, people took steroids, it's a blemished era. Must we beat the dead horse and find out exactly who did it, and for how long? Must we continue to make this into a circus? With our country at war, healthcare problems galore and a potential recession looming, should Congress really be wasting their time listening to Roger Clemens lie about whether or not he took a needle in the ass to make him throw a baseball harder? This is ridiculous, and frankly, I've had enough and can no longer be bothered.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Now starting for the New York Mets?

I refuse to comment on speculation, especially with the 2 months of drama regarding Johan Santana. However, I will re-iterate one point. As a Met fan, I am willing to deal ANY package of players that does not include Jose Reyes, David Wright or Carlos Beltran to bring Johan Santana to the Mets. This guy is the best pitcher in the game, in his prime, and I refuse to let any player(s) who has yet to make any kind of impact in the major leagues prevent me from getting him. With a package of guys like Deolis Guerra (18), Fernando Martinez (18), Carlos Gomez (hit .250 in the big leagues last year, Kevin Mulvey (a 22 yr with just 1 AAA start) and Philip Humber (still waiting for ANYTHING impressive), the BEST case scenario is that ONE of them rises to the level of Santana.

I'll take the sure bet, and don't kid yourself, the Mets can afford the 6 yr/$150M extension. After all, their biggest off-season acquisition to this point remains Matt Wise and the $1.2M we gave him.

For the record..

In week 17, many were debating the right approach was for a team with nothing to play for. Here is a small statistical sampling:

New England- At 15-0, with the #1 seed wrapped up and only a perfect season to play for, the Pats played as hard as any week, and now find themselves hosting the AFC championship game.

Indianapolis- At 13-2, the Colts were locked into the #2 seed, and took all starters out before the start of the 2nd quarter. Their reward? Losing their first playoff game at home to Billy Volek.

Jacksonville- Locked into the 5th seed at 11-4, the Jags willingly took a beating from the Texans to give Garrard, Jones-Drew and Taylor a rest. While they did win at Pittsburgh, they still find themselves watching on TV with the rest of us next week.

Dallas- At 13-2 with te #1 seed in hand, Tony Romo played just the first half, and Marion Barber carried the ball only 6 times as the 'Boys let their division rival Redskins walk into the playoffs with a 27-6 win. Their reward? An opening round home loss to hated rival New York.

Green Bay- Despite having the #2 seed locked up, the Pack came out with something to prove, started their A-team and routed the Lions 34-13 to wrap up the season. Not surprisingly, they find themselves hosting the NFC title game next week.

New York Giants- Locked in the #5 seed and faced with a no-win situation ( try to derail the Pats perfect season or rest up a beat-up squad), Big Blue opted to play their hearts out and have the Pats a run for their money. They lost Sean O'Hara, but gained priceless confidence. Two road wins later they find themselves a game away from the Super Bowl.

So much for 'much-needed rest'...

Sunday, January 13, 2008

A Giant Weekend

It's down to four in the NFL playoffs, and its a tale of two different stories in the AFC and NFC. Pre-season odds on a Pats/Chargers AFC Title game would have been pretty reasonable, but how many people predicted a Packers/Giants NFC Championship game before the season?? After the Packers outscored Seattle 42-6 in the final 55 minutes on Saturday, the Patriots took the Jaguars best shot, and still rolled to a 31-20 victory.

Sunday was the more interesting day; two road teams pulled significant upsets, and two preseason favorites were derailed. Despite a hobbled Antonio Gates, and losing both Philip Rivers and LDT to injury, the Chargers shocked the Colts in Indy to advance to the AFC Championship game. This sets up a potentially disastrous AFC title game, and the big wigs and CBS are still weeping over losing their dream matchup. The only way the Chargers can make this a game, is if they can get healthy (fast) and Shawne Merriman can terrorize Brady. I don't like the Chargers chances at all, but its football, and stranger things have happened.

How about them GGGGGG-Men?? You have to give Eli Manning credit. After all the abuse he's taken, after all the talking heads saying he would never be a star in this league, he has elevated his game the past 4 weeks and grown by leaps and bounds. He hasn't put up eye-popping numbers, but he's made the smart plays, avoiding the disastrous ones, and emerged as a true leader. While Eli has blossomed, the Giants have quietly been working the two-headed rusher monster, as Ahmad Bradshaw has served as the perfect compliment to the hard-nosed Brandon Jacobs. Additionally, Amani Toomer has proven himself to be among the league's most underrated receivers, and Kevin Boss has filled Shockey's shoes flawlessly. The pass rush has been key all season, and was outstanding on the Cowboys final drive. R.W. McQuarters played a phenomenal game, but the secondary must get healthy in a hurry for the Giants to advance. The blue and red have exceeded expectations, and Giants' fans are thrilled to even make it to Lambeau, but don't expect anyone to be satisfied. Going into Lambeau and winning is a tall task, but who can really argue with 8 straight road wins??

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

"National Championship"

Pretty much what I expected. LSU was bigger, faster and better. This Ohio State team is extremely young, losing only 3 seniors to graduation in 2008. The future is bright for this team, and Chris "Beanie" Wells may be a Heisman favorite heading into next season. The Buckeyes jumped out to a quick start, similar to last year's game, and were overmatched from there on out. The SEC truly seems to be the dominant conference in the NCAA. SEC teams went 7-2 in bowls this year, and have won the past 2 national titles.

In a shocking development, after being screwed out of the national title thing, Georgia president Michael Adams is suddenly advocating a playoff. Funny how the system is all well and good until it screws your school. My theory is, once all 119 teams in the Bowl Championship Subdivision have been screwed out of a title shot, we will finally see a playoff. But until then, the best we can hope for is a plus-one format in 2010, which may be becoming a realistically possibility.

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

That's Why They Call It Wild-Card

The NFL uncharacteristically lacked parody this year, which did not bode well for the postseason. However the opening weekend to the playoffs was extremely entertaining, with 4 competitive, entertaining games.

Seattle/Washington: The emotional wave can only carry you so far and met its enemy on Saturday, deafening crowd noise. Qwest Field is an impossible place to play, and even harder when your starting QB is returning from a decade absence in the NFL. The Redskins showed heart and rallied to take the lead with two scores in a three minutes, but the Seahawks pulled away behind Marcus Trufant's pick-6. Don't count the Seahawks out of the NFC picture. I'm a firm believer in Matt Hasselbeck, and an experienced QB, excellent coach and quality defense can carry a team to the big show.

Jacksonville/Pittsburgh- In the most thrilling game of the weekend, the Jags did what 80% of the world expected, knocked off the Steelers in Heinz Field. After an atrocious first half, Big Ben rallied the troops as the Steelers mounted a furious comeback. Rothlisberger has proven himself time and time again to be one of the leagues premier QB, despite the fact that he lacks the skills of the majority of signal callers. He's an outstanding leader and a tough, gutsy football player. As is David Garrard, who recorded the first of what I suspect will be many memorable playoff moments, with a 4th-and-2 scramble for 32 yards to set up the game winner. I love the Jacksonville-New England game next weekend, as I believe the Jags are the only team outside of Indianapolis who can give the Pats a game.

NY Giants/Tampa Bay- You can give me as much proof as you want, and I still won't believe Peyton didn't play the final three quarters of that game. After 15 minutes, the New York media had already written their stories about how the Giants will never win in the playoffs with the ambivalent Eli Manning. But the supposed Black Sheep of the Manning family came through on Sunday afternoon, completing 20 out of 27 passes for 185 yards and 2 touchdown passes. And where in the world did Ahmad Bradshaw come from? This team has finally shown character to go along with its obvious talent, and could surprise Dallas next weekend. The Giants are playing their best football over the past month, while Dallas hasn't played well since Thanksgiving, a dangerous combination for Tony Romo's hope of erasing past playoff woes. In other news, rumor has it Tim Mara has invited Jessica Simpson to the game as his special guest.

San Diego/Tennessee- I refuse to elaborate too much on this game, because it may well have been the worst played playoff game I have ever seen. San Diego looked miserable, and if the Titans had any talent on offense outside of Young, would have lost this game. However, I am thankful the Bolts pulled this game out because a) they covered their 9 point spread, and b) we don't have to sit through Tennessee-New England next week. Imagine the carnage.

Friday, January 4, 2008

Hokie low

If you had told me Kansas would come out and throw all over VT's defense, I might have believed it. If you had told me the offense would sputter against a quick KU defense that only allowed 16 pts/game, I might have believed it. But the fact that the Jayhawks came out and beat the Hokies in the area that has brought them fame is simply shocking to me. A blocked field goal, a fake punt for a first down, two 60+ yard punts, a missed FG return for 40 yards. That's right, Kansas' SPECIAL TEAMS won the Orange Bowl for the Jayhawks, upsetting my 3rd ranked Virginia Tech Hokies 24-21.

In fairness, the Hokies played a very poor game. Glennon and Taylor completed less than 50% of their passes and threw 3 deadly interceptions, one returned for a TD, and another returned to the Tech goal line. The offensive line did a miserable job protecting the QB, giving up 5 sacks, including on consecutive plays on the opening drive which took VT out of scoring range. However, what makes Virginia Tech a great team, is they normally win games like this. They normally can pull out those games where the make mistakes, with special teams and big defensive plays. But yesterday, it was Kansas that pulled out the big special teams plays and big defensive plays, and that made all the difference.

Congratulations to Mark Mangino and his team for the win, but they beat VT at their own game, and that's what stings.

Thursday, January 3, 2008

Later Sooners

So much for Oklahoma deserving to go to the national championship game. The Sooners defense looked impossibly slow all night, as the Mountaineers ran all over Bob Stoops' bunch for 249 yards. For the fourth straight year, the Sooners lost a BCS game, and for the second straight year, to a heavy underdog. The sad part is, this game, and its 20-point margin of victory, was the closest BCS game yet. These games have been painfully disappointing thus far, hopefully the next 2 will make up for it.

As for tomorrow, I'm really not sure what to expect because I don't know what to make of Kansas. The team did have an 11-1 record in a major conference, despite not playing Texas or Oklahoma, and getting trounced by Mizzou. Should be a good one, as I hope the Hokies come out and do exactly what Georgia did; show why they should be playing for the National Title.

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Happy New Year Omar!

Happy New Year to all, especially Mets GM Omar Minaya.

Hopefully 2008 will be a year where we can't say, 'our biggest move was signing Matt Wise'.

(I'm quite glad I decided not to blog about just the Mets, poor Matt Cerrone).

BCS hangover

If there wasn't already enough to complain about with the BCS, yesterdays games gave us brand new ammunition. On New Year's Day, historically the biggest day for college football, the slate was cleared for a USC-Illinois Rose Bowl, and a Georgia-Hawaii Sugar Bowl. Thanks to the ever flexible folks of the Rose Bowl Committee, deserving teams like Missouri and Arizona State got passed over for... Illinois. After all, why have a match-up of two deserving teams when you can keep the tradition of Pac 10 vs Big Ten.

So as a result of the open-minded sensible decision makers in Pasadena, we get...USC 49, Illinois 17.

And for an encore...Georgia 41, Hawaii 10.

Yeah, there's nothing wrong with the system.

16 and Oh Well

So it happened. Similar to the 2007 Mets collapse, it had you think "It's really gonna happen isn't it? Nah, it couldn't happen, could it?" And then sure enough, it did, the Pats went 16-0. The shock is minimal, as people talked about 16-0 after the Week 1 victory against the Jets, and while the Pats were down in a few instances, it never really seemed like they were actually going to lose. I only really have two words in response "Oh well". What else can you say? It wasn't as if the gods of fate didn't try. They slapped a cheating scandal on them after Week 1. Dealt them several injury blows with Maroney, Seymour and several other defenders. The gods of fate allowed Kyle Boller and the Ravens to give the Pats a run, and allowed Eli Manning to pose as a polished passer. None if it mattered, as the Pats were destined for this. And while I wouldn't take 5:1 odds that they don't win the Super Bowl, I will say this: It means nothing if they don't win the Super Bowl. Some have argued the fact, but consider this. When you think of the great baseball teams of all time, where do the 2001 Seattle Mariners rank. Probably not on your radar, despite their all-time record 116 wins. Why? Because they didn't even PLAY in the World Series. Regardless of regular season performance, the Pats need to seal the deal for this to mean anything, and even if you don't agree, there's 52 guys in Foxboro, Massachusetts who do.